Welcome to Week 17 of Toxic Differential Plus.

Click on the link above to get a more detailed explanation of the stat or roll with the equation below:

Explosive Play Differential + 2(Turnover Differential) + Sack Differential = Toxic Differential Plus

We are so close to the end of the season and the TD+ stat is really rounding into shape. Only five teams remain in the plum color on the chart on the right on Page 1, indicating bubble teams. The Denver Broncos are far and away the best squad of the five remaining teams with a TD+ of +46. They’ve done it mainly by leading the league in sack differential, accounting for 34 points of their total, the best sack differential in the league. All the Broncos need to do is beat the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend to get into the playoffs. The Chiefs have the number one seed in the AFC sewn up and really have no reason to play this game competitively. The Broncos are double digit favorites.

The Buccaneers sit at +4 in TD+, a few points ahead of the division rival Atlanta Falcons at -2. The Bucs just need a win against the New Orleans Saints and they’re in the postseason by virtue of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay is also a double digit favorite at home against a Saints team that sure seems ready for the off-season.

If the Broncos and Bucs grab the final two spots, there’s a chance that every team in the playoffs will enter with a positive TD+. That would be the first time that has happened since 2015 and the first in since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams.

Remember to scroll through the other pages to see breakdowns by component and a grid of each game results. It’s a good way to quickly look at each team’s schedule and see how they’ve performed.